OpenAI files its IPO: the decade's largest tech listing is imminent
🔎 The day AI became a stock market affair
On May 20, 2026, OpenAI engaged banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus filing. According to the Wall Street Journal, this filing could happen in the days or weeks that follow. A stock market debut is envisioned as early as September 2026, reports CNBC.
Why now? Because OpenAI no longer has a choice. The CAPEX required to train models like GPT-5.5 or GPT-5.4 Pro is exploding. ChatGPT's revenues, although growing, are no longer enough to single-handedly fund this effort. The IPO is not a victory: it is a strategic necessity.
The context is also political. The White House wants to verify AI models before their release, which adds regulatory uncertainty. It is better to go public before the rules tighten.
The essentials
- OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, according to the New York Post.
- The current valuation reaches $852 billion after a $122 billion round, which would make it the largest US IPO in history according to Tech Insider.
- The stock market debut is targeted for September 2026, with a possible valuation of $1 trillion (Inspirepreneur Magazine).
- OpenAI just won a major lawsuit against Elon Musk, eliminating a key legal obstacle (Inspirepreneur Magazine).
- The IPO race pits OpenAI against SpaceX and Anthropic for the largest listing of 2026 (Economic Times).
Recommended tools
| Hostinger | Web hosting to follow AI news | Starting at 2.99 € (May 2026, check on hostinger.com) | Tech bloggers and content creators |
| Polymarket | Betting on the OpenAI IPO date | Prediction market (free) | Investors and observers |
| Bloomberg | Real-time IPO tracking | Paid subscription | Financial analysts |
852 billion: how we get to this figure
OpenAI is worth $852 billion. This is the figure circulating after the latest $122 billion funding round, led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. To put this number into perspective: it's more than the combined market capitalization of Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm in 2025.
The trajectory is dizzying. In April 2025, OpenAI was still raising $40 billion at a $300 billion valuation, a record for a private tech deal, with SoftBank as the lead and Microsoft, Coatue, Altimeter, and Thrive as participants, according to Wikipedia. A year later, the valuation has almost tripled.
What justifies this explosion: ChatGPT's revenue. The product now generates several billion per year. But above all, the markets are betting on the potential of agentic models. GPT-5.5 dominates the agentic leaderboard with a score of 98.2, ahead of Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think (95.4) and Claude Opus 4.7 Adaptive (94.3). This leadership is being monetized.
The risk is that the valuation relies on growth projections that assume a technical monopoly. However, Gemini 3.1 Pro (92 overall, 87.3 in agentic) and Claude Opus 4.7 (90 overall, 94.3 in agentic) are hot on its heels.
OpenAI's Structure: A Legal Puzzle
OpenAI is not a normal company. It is organized around a two-tier structure: a non-profit entity (OpenAI Inc.) and a for-profit wrapper (OpenAI LP). It is this wrapper that is the subject of the IPO.
This structure has been criticized from the beginning. A non-profit organization controlling a company valued at nearly $1 trillion is an anomaly. The non-profit's board of directors appoints a majority of the for-profit's board seats. Investors therefore do not have traditional control.
For the IPO, this structure will likely have to evolve. Institutional investors will not agree to pay hundreds of billions for a company where they do not have control. Sam Altman has already begun to restructure, but the details remain unclear.
What is certain: the non-profit will retain an interest in the for-profit. It is written in the charter. The question is what exact share, and how this will be treated in the prospectus. The SEC will examine this closely.
Historical investors: who gets what
Microsoft is the most visible investor. The Redmond giant has poured billions into OpenAI since 2019 and uses GPT models in Copilot, Azure, and Bing. But Microsoft is not alone.
The table below summarizes the key players:
| Investor | Estimated role | Reference round |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | Strategic partner and cloud | All rounds since 2019 |
| SoftBank | Lead investor of the 300B round | April 2025 (Wikipedia) |
| Thrive Capital | Early investor, strong leverage | All major rounds |
| Nvidia | GPU provider, investor | 122B round (Tech Insider) |
| Amazon | Surprise investor | 300B round (Trend Plus) |
| Goldman Sachs | Investment bank + underwriter | IPO (CNBC) |
| Morgan Stanley | Investment bank + underwriter | IPO (WSJ) |
SoftBank deserves particular attention. Masayoshi Son's fund led the 300 billion round with 110 billion injected, according to Trend Plus. It is a massive bet that generative AI will become the infrastructure of the entire economy.
Nvidia is in an ambiguous position. The company provides the GPUs that enable the training of OpenAI's models, while also being an investor. This is a potential conflict of interest that the prospectus will need to detail.
The IPO race: OpenAI vs. SpaceX and Anthropic
OpenAI's IPO is not happening in a vacuum. 2026 is the year of mega tech listings, and two other players complicate the picture.
SpaceX, Elon Musk's company, is also preparing its stock market debut. Its expected valuation also exceeds hundreds of billions. But according to the Economic Times, OpenAI could go public before SpaceX, which would be a strong symbolic blow for Sam Altman against Elon Musk.
Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, is also in the running. The company behind Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Sonnet 4.6 is preparing its own listing. Its approach is different: less hype, more caution. But with models like Claude Opus 4.7 scoring 94.3 in agentic and 90 in general, Anthropic has a credible story to tell investors.
Can the market absorb three IPOs of this size in the same year? That is the question fund managers are asking. If all three hit the stock market in a single quarter, the supply of shares could dilute demand and weigh on stock prices.
That being said, Anthropic and OpenAI each launch their $10 billion enterprise JV, showing that both companies are looking to monetize AI in B2B even before their stock market debut. The IPO is the next step in this business logic.
From research lab to commercial machine
OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit research lab. The mission: to build safe AGI beneficial to humanity. Eleven years later, the company is deploying an aggressive commercial strategy that rivals that of a traditional tech giant.
The pivot is gradual but irreversible. The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 is the tipping point. Then come paid subscriptions, the developer API, enterprise partnerships, and now joint ventures dedicated to deployment in SMBs and large corporations.
Current models reflect this product line logic. OpenAI offers GPT-5.5 (agentic score 98.2, general 91) at the high end, GPT-5.4 Pro (91.8 agentic, 91 general) as a premium offering, GPT-5.4 (87.6 agentic, 89 general) for the mid-range, and GPT-5.3 Codex (80 agentic, 87 general) specialized in code. It is a classic tiered pricing strategy.
Even voice has become a product. OpenAI GPT-Realtime-2 offers three voice models that reason, translate, and transcribe in real time. Every capability is a market. Every market is a revenue stream.
Going public merely formalizes what everyone can see: OpenAI is no longer a lab. It is a software company whose product is artificial intelligence.
Investor risks: what the prospectus won't say enough
An IPO prospectus is a sales document. But between the lines, the risks are massive. Here are the top four.
The Musk lawsuit: eliminated but not forgotten
OpenAI won the lawsuit filed by Elon Musk, who contested the company's transformation into a for-profit entity. According to Inspirepreneur Magazine, this victory removes a key obstacle to the IPO and paves the way for a potential $1 trillion valuation.
But Musk has nearly unlimited legal resources. An appeal, a new lawsuit on different grounds, is always possible. Legal uncertainty doesn't disappear entirely with a first-instance ruling.
The price war
The LLM market has become a commodity market. DeepSeek V4 Pro Max reaches 88 in general and its High variant reaches 84, at a likely much lower training cost. Kimi K2.6 (Moonshot AI) scores 84 in general and 88.1 in agentic in self-host. Z.AI's GLM-5.1 reaches 83.
When Chinese and European models approach OpenAI's scores at a fraction of the price, GPT-5.5's margin is threatened. Tech industry history shows that leaders' margins always compress when the competition catches up.
Astronomical CAPEX
Training GPT-5.5 and future models costs tens of billions per year in GPUs, electricity, and data centers. OpenAI relies on Microsoft Azure for most of its infrastructure. If the relationship deteriorates or Azure's costs increase, profitability is directly impacted.
The question investors must ask: Can OpenAI become profitable without relying on a single cloud provider? The current answer is no.
Regulation
The White House wants to verify AI models before their release. If this type of regulation materializes, OpenAI's model launch cycle slows down. Fewer launches, fewer new revenues, less growth.
Europe is not left behind either. The AI Act already imposes constraints. Other jurisdictions will follow. Each new regulation is a risk of slowing down OpenAI's business model.
Prediction markets are betting on September
Prediction markets offer a raw but interesting indicator of market sentiment. On Polymarket, bettors are wagering on the effective listing date.
The consensus is shifting toward September 2026, in line with reports from WION. A confidential filing in May or June, followed by a summer roadshow, then a first day of trading in September: this is the classic timeline for an IPO of this magnitude.
But prediction markets are often wrong. The SEC process can take longer than expected, especially for a structure as complex as OpenAI. And an external event (stock market crash, scandal, surprise regulation) can delay everything.
What is revealing is that no one is betting on a postponement beyond 2026. The market views the IPO as inevitable; the only question is the exact timing.
What the IPO reveals about OpenAI's financial health
An IPO is also a diagnostic. The figures in the prospectus will tell what press releases hide.
First indicator: the burn rate. OpenAI likely spends between $15 and $20 billion a year between CAPEX, R&D, and salaries. If annual revenues exceed $10 billion, the burn is manageable. Below that, the IPO is a bet on future growth that is not guaranteed.
Second indicator: dependence on ChatGPT. If more than 80% of revenue comes from a single product, investors will see a concentration risk. OpenAI needs to show that the API, enterprise joint ventures, and model licenses generate significant revenue.
Third indicator: margins per model. GPT-5.5 is more expensive to serve than GPT-5.4, which is more expensive than GPT-5.3 Codex. If gross margins are below 50%, the business model is fragile compared to a traditional SaaS.
The $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation suggests that private investors see a path to profitability. But public investors are less forgiving. They read quarterly reports with a critical eye.
The competitive landscape at the time of the IPO
OpenAI's IPO arrives at a time when competition has never been so fierce. The model rankings in June 2025 show a multi-actor market.
Overall, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro leads with 92, ahead of GPT-5.5 (91). Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Adaptive follows at 90, closely trailed by Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think (90) and xAI's Grok 4.1 (90). OpenAI no longer holds the technical monopoly.
In agentic, GPT-5.5 clearly dominates (98.2), but Claude Opus 4.7 Adaptive is at 94.3 and Gemini 3 Pro Deep Think is at 95.4. The gap narrows with each generation.
DeepSeek V4 Pro Max (88 overall, unranked in agentic) and Kimi K2.6 (84 overall, 88.1 agentic self-host) represent the Chinese threat. High-performing models, possible open weights, and significantly lower infrastructure costs thanks to architectural optimizations.
For an investor, the question is: why pay a premium for OpenAI when Google, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek, and Moonshot AI offer technically comparable alternatives? The answer must come from the network effects, the developer ecosystem, and the ChatGPT brand. Not from the technology alone.
❌ Common mistakes
Mistake 1: Confusing private valuation and IPO price
The $852 billion valuation is from the last private round. The IPO price may be different. If the market is bearish in September 2026, OpenAI could raise at a discount. Investors who believe they are buying at $852 billion risk discovering that the listing price is adjusted downward.
The solution: follow stock market indices and market sentiment in the weeks leading up to the listing, not private round valuations.
Mistake 2: Thinking an IPO means profitability
Alibaba, Uber, Snapchat: all had massive IPOs while they were not profitable. OpenAI has no obligation to be profitable to go public. An IPO is a financing, not a certificate of financial health.
The solution: read the S-1 prospectus for operating cash flow, not the press releases about valuation.
Mistake 3: Ignoring the governance structure
Buying OpenAI shares will likely not give the same control as buying Apple or Microsoft shares. The non-profit will retain a veto right over certain decisions. Investors who have not read the governance section of the prospectus will be surprised.
The solution: understand the two-tier structure before investing, and evaluate whether the limited control justifies the price.
Mistake 4: Overweighting benchmark scores
GPT-5.5 leads the agentic leaderboard with 98.2. But benchmarks do not measure profitability. A model that scores 98 but costs 10 times more to serve than a model that scores 85 is not necessarily a better commercial product.
The solution: look at costs per request and margins, not just LMSYS or equivalent scores.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the exact date of OpenAI's IPO?
No date has been set. The confidential filing is expected in late May or early June 2026, and the market debut is targeted for September 2026 according to WION. The SEC may change this timeline.
How much will an OpenAI share be worth?
It's impossible to say without knowing the number of shares issued. An $852 billion valuation says nothing about the unit price. The S-1 prospectus will reveal the number of shares and the proposed price per share.
Will retail investors be able to buy OpenAI shares?
Yes, once listed, the shares will be accessible on the secondary market like any US stock. However, the pre-IPO private placement is reserved for accredited and institutional investors.
Is OpenAI's IPO riskier than a typical tech IPO?
Yes, for three reasons: the atypical governance structure, the massive CAPEX without a clear path to profitability, and competition that is quickly closing the technological gap. It is a highly asymmetric risk/return profile.
Will OpenAI beat SpaceX and Anthropic in the stock market?
According to the Economic Times, OpenAI has a timing advantage. But "beating" in the stock market means nothing if the price underperforms after the first day. The real test is the 12-month performance.
What happens if the IPO fails?
A failure (listing below the expected valuation, or withdrawal) would force OpenAI to raise more private capital or drastically cut its expenses. This scenario is unlikely but not impossible if the markets turn between May and September 2026.
✅ Conclusion
OpenAI's IPO is the most anticipated stock market event of the decade, but it says as much about the limitations of the current AI model as it does about its success. A company that burns tens of billions a year to train models that the competition catches up with every cycle is by no means a safe bet. If you want to follow this news closely, reliable hosting like Hostinger will allow you to build your own news monitoring platform without breaking the bank.